On 31/03/2021 TraderTalent.com is bringing you another guest post from Bryan Noble of TraderNoble.com.
U.S. Equity Markets continued their choppy trade, finishing the day lower, led by the NASDAQ 100 which closed with a loss of 0.56%. A spike in bond yields weighed on markets. This has been a theme playing out over the past few weeks. Higher bond yields spark fears of higher borrowing costs, which could impact the growth outlook for some companies. Other news was positive, however. President Joe Biden said 90% of all U.S. adults should be eligible to receive a COVID-19 inoculation by April 19, boosting the economic outlook. And Consumer Confidence rose to the highest level since the pandemic hit, as respondents expressed optimism over spending on big-ticket purchases in the coming months. Investors are still awaiting Biden’s announcement on a $2.25 trillion infrastructure package, which is expected to come this afternoon. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said the White House anticipates paying for the bill without using gas or mileage taxes. European Markets closed near record highs. The European Central Bank maintained its inflated rate of Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme Bond Buying in an attempt to keep rising bond yields in check. Saudi Arabia was said to be in favour of the OPEC extending its current production cuts through May and June. Euro-Zone Economic Sentiment rose in March, coming in above its long-term average for the first time since the pandemic began, on Industrial and Employment optimism. European Union coronavirus vaccinations rose to 69.3 million yesterday, with a daily average of 1.56 million doses administered over the last week. Elsewhere, Bitcoin rose 2.35% after PayPal launched cryptocurrency payments to online stores, while Gold fell 1.80% on continued Dollar strength.
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.32% lower at a price of 3958.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 104 points lower for a 0.31% loss at a price of 33,067.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.53% lower at a price of 12,896.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.8% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.6%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.71% higher at a price of 29,384.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% higher.
The Euro closed 0.4% lower at $1.1718.
The British Pound closed 0.3% lower at $1.3721.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.4% lower at 110.27 per dollar.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points higher at -0.30%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed four basis points higher at 0.82%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed one basis points higher at 1.72%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.97% lower at $59.85 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.80% lower at $1,682.30 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have UK GDP and Total Business Investment at 7.00 am. This is followed by German Unemployment at 8.55 am and Euro-Zone CPI at 10.00 am. At 12.00 pm we have U.S MBA Mortgage Applications and the ADP Employment Change at 1.15 pm. Next, the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index will be released at 2.45 pm. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have Pending Home Sales.
June S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 3940 buy level before rallying to my 3950 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Despite the S&P following the NASDAQ lower, the rebound in the Dow saw the S&P firm into the close as yet again the buy the dip wins. With two confirmed Hindenburg Omens on the clock it is difficult to know how long these U.S Indices can hold up before we finally see a meaningful correction. Despite the late rally, I am now going to chase the S&P lower and I will continue to be a seller from 3982/3998 with the same 4011 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has strong support from 3915/3930 where I will again be a buyer with a 3904 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Today is month and Quarter End and we will see some re-balancing of stocks which may add to the volatility. After rallying 10% on Monday, the VIX closed 5% lower last night. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 3971. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 3942.
EUR/USD
The Euro traded lower to my 1.1720 buy level. I am still long as the Euro is now oversold. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 1.1680 with the same 1.1645 stop. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.1745 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
June Dollar Index
Unfortunately, the Dollar rallied 0.4% yesterday, stopping me out of my latest 92.55 short position at 93.05 and I am now flat. The Dollar has support from 92.50/92.90 where I will be a small buyer with a 92.05 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 93.25.
June DAX
The DAX closed over 15000 as yet again anyone shorting this market got slammed as one new all-time high after another is achieved. Thankfully, we have not been short the DAX for the past few weeks. The DAX has support from 14750/14820 where I will be a small buyer with a 14695 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 14865.
June FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE as the market again traded sideways despite the rally to new highs in most European Indices. I will now lower my buy level to 6590/6640 with a lower 6545 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 6670.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow looked like it was about to break 33000 before a last-minute rally drove the market 100 points higher off this support level. I am still flat. I will now lower my buy level slightly to 32650/32830 with a lower 32525 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Ahead of month and Quarter End I will leave my 33340/33500 sell level unchanged with the same 33625 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 32970. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 33220.
June NASDAQ
My NASDAQ plan worked well with the market selling off to my 12790 buy level shortly after the US Cash Markets opened before rallying to my 12850 T/P level and I am now flat. The NASDAQ has short-term support from 12630/12740 where I will again be a buyer with a 12565 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the NASDAQ at this time. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 12805.
June BUND
My Bund plan did not work well. The market traded lower to my second buy level at 171.10 for a 171.40 average long position before stopping me out of this position near the low of the day at 170.88 and I am now flat. I am going to stay flat the Bund as I do not have an edge in this market at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold got hit for $30 yesterday, for a total decline of nearly $300 since the 1965 high in January. This move lower saw my 1680 buy level filled before we had a small rebound to 1687, enabling me to cover this position at my revised 1685.50 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members. Gold must hold the 1648/1663 support level or this decline could get ugly. I will be a buyer in this area with a 1639 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1672.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver traded lower to my 24.05 buy level. I am still long and I will add to this position at 23.55 with a lower 23.15 stop. I will now lower my T/P level to 24.25.
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