trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunset Market Commentary 25/03/2022 via Trader Talent

Sunset Friday, March 25, 2022 Daily Market Overview Click here to read the PDF-version of this report. Markets • Europe’s aspiration to cut reliance on Russian fossil energy by two-thirds end 2022 and almost completely by 2024 became a little bit more concrete today. The continent announced an agreement with the US under which Europe will receive at least 15 billion cubic meters of additional LNG supplies. That amount may go up to 50bn by 2025, when new projects are scheduled to come online, until at least 2030. For now, the extra 15bn would only replace Russian LNG flows though while the …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunrise Market Commentary 25/03/2022 via Trader Talent

Friday, 25 March 2022 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Markets •          Wednesday’s ‘classic’ risk-off correction with a setback in equities and a decline in yields proved to be a one-off rather than the start of a new trend. Oil (temporarily?) returning above $120 p/b was a warning that inflationary risks still have a key role to play in global/bond markets. Eco data, especially headline readings, were better than expected. The EMU March composite PMI eased from 55.5 to 54.4. A bigger drop was expected and figure remains well above the 50 boom-bust level, suggesting solid growth at …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunset Market Commentary 24/03/2022 via Trader Talent

Sunset Thursday, March 24, 2022 Daily Market Overview Click here to read the PDF-version of this report. Markets • EMU PMI’s provided the first real (sentiment) update on consequences from the Russian invasion in Ukraine. The official setback was smaller than feared in March. The composite number fell from 55.5 to 54.5, with the decline more or less similar in the export-oriented manufacturing sector (57 from 58.2) and the domestic services industry (54.8 from 55.5). Details nevertheless showed that a boost to demand from the further reopening of the economy from Covid-19 restrictions offset the economic impact of the Russian invasion. It’s worth …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunrise Market Commentary 24/03/2022 via Trader Talent

Thursday, 24 March 2022 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Markets •          Yesterday, markets (temporarily?) returned to a ‘classic’ risk-off script, with equities declining and bonds rebounding. We see the move meanly as a technical correction. The bond market sell-off apparently was ripe for a pause as markets became well aware that the Fed is prepared to front-load its hiking cycle with 50 bps rate hikes in May and/or possibly in June if (inflation) data force them to do so. Still, with oil prices jumping and inflation expectations still rising (10-y TIPS inflation expectations are again near the …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunset Market Commentary 23/03/2022 via Trader Talent

Sunset Wednesday, March 23, 2022 Daily Market Overview Click here to read the PDF-version of this report. Markets • A lot of eyes were on UK Finance Minister Sunak and his spring statement on the budget and the economy. The UK cost of living crisis worsened with inflation having accelerated to a faster-than-expected 6.2% y/y (5.2% core) in February, data showed ahead of Sunak’s update. He wants to alleviate some of the income squeeze by announcing the biggest ever fuel-duty cut until March next year in a tax cut worth £5bn. Sunak also removes the 5% VAT on the installation of some energy …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunrise Market Commentary 23/03/2022 via Trader Talent

Wednesday, 23 March 2022 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Markets •          Monday’s post-Powell bond market sell-off simply continued. A 50 bps rate hike (in May) apparently has become the preferred scenario not only for the hawkish wing within the Fed (Bullard, Bostic). Moderates (Mester/Daly) also voiced their support to step up the pace of policy normalization. A strong economy and unacceptably high inflation are building a consensus to frontload tightening and bring the policy rate to/above the neutral level. US yields rose another 4.9bps (2-y) to 8.4 bps (30-y), with all tenors setting new cycle top levels. …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunset Market Commentary 22/03/2022 via Trader Talent

Sunset Tuesday, March 22, 2022 Daily Market Overview Click here to read the PDF-version of this report. Markets • Today, investors still weighed the consequences Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish comments flagging a 50 bps rate hike in May and, why not, maybe also in June. Even after yesterday’s sharp rise in the US and EMU, there was still room for follow-through action. The focus turned from Fed speakers to ECB governors. Their tone evidently is moderate compared to Powell’s harsh talk. Even so, the need to re-anchor inflation expectations/start policy normalization isn’t  questioned anymore. The debate between moderates and hawks is about …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunrise Market Commentary 22/03/2022 via Trader Talent

Tuesday, 22 March 2022 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Markets •          A further rise in oil prices and Fed’s Powell’s updated ‘forward guidance’ only a few days after last week’s policy meeting put interest rate markets on red alert yesterday. The rise in oil prices initially kept inflation expectations under upward pressure, especially in Europe. At the same time US yields were already upwardly oriented, inspired by hawkish comments from Fed governors Bostic and Bullard. At an appearance before the National Association for Business Economics, Powell clearly flagged that these hawkish intentions are drawing ever more support …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunset Market Commentary 21/03/2022 via Trader Talent

Sunset Monday, March 21, 2022 Daily Market Overview Click here to read the PDF-version of this report. Markets • Brent crude prices rallied further today, gaining around 6% as the EU contemplates taking draconic action against Russia in the form of banning energy imports. The oil price rises from $108/b to $114/b. Ukraine rejected Russia’s ultimatum to surrender the port city of Mariupol. It’s telling that German economy minister Habeck this weekend announced after talks in Doha that both countries’ commercial entities would re-engage and progress discussions on long term LNG supplies from Qatar to Germany. Higher energy prices, but commodity prices bar …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunrise Market Commentary 21/03/2022 via Trader Talent

Monday, 21 March 2022 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Markets •          With still only mixed signals on any progress in the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, European investors on Friday initially took some chips off the table after last week’s rally. US investors were less worried on the impact on their economy. US indices gained 0.80% (Dow) to 2.05% (Nasdaq). European equities also reversed losses (EuroStoxx +0.44%). In the wake of last week’s policy meeting, Fed hawks Waller and Bullard were the first speakers to defend/reinforce their view. Waller openly voiced support for a 50 bps hike …