trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunset Market Commentary 08/04/2022 via Trader Talent

Sunset Friday, April 8, 2022 Daily Market Overview Click here to read the PDF-version of this report. Markets • This week turned out far more interesting than one could have guessed at the start. The economic calendar was empty but for the meeting minutes from the Fed and ECB March policy gathering. And they had quite some market implications. Those from the Fed gave us a sneak peek at the balance sheet roll-off blueprint. It intends to shed bonds at a cruising speed of $95bn per month at minimum with a three-month break-in period. Hawkish comments from Fed heavyweight and now-former dove …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunrise Market Commentary 08/04/2022 via Trader Talent

Friday, 8 April 2022 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Markets •          Minutes of the March ECB meeting kickstarted the countdown to next week’s ECB meeting. In line with FOMC Minutes, they surprised markets in a hawkish manner. The key takeaway was some ECB members already argued in favour of a firm end date (in Summer) for asset purchases. Eventually the ECB decided to accelerate the tapering of its asset purchases to €40bn in April, €30bn in May and €20bn in June. Ceteris paribus, they will end in Q3. We believe that the hawkish elements in the March …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunset Market Commentary 07/04/2022 via Trader Talent

Sunset Thursday, April 7, 2022 Daily Market Overview Click here to read the PDF-version of this report. Markets • It’s becoming the week of Minutes. Yesterday’s FOMC Minutes provided the blueprint for the Fed’s balance sheet roll-off. The Fed gives itself three months’ time starting from May to hit a pace of $95/bn month. This consists out of $60bn US Treasuries and $35bn mortgage-backed securities. Months were redemptions don’t reach this number will be complemented with shedding t-bills. Once the roll-off process is up and running, the Fed will contemplate active monthly selling out of its $2.7tn MBS-portfolio, implying that the $95bn …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunrise Market Commentary 07/04/2022 via Trader Talent

Thursday, 7 April 2022 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Markets •          FOMC Minutes took centre stage yesterday and rightly so. They confirmed willingness from Fed governors to step up the tightening cycle. Many participants noted that one or more [half-percentage-point] increases in the target range could be appropriate at future meetings, particularly if inflation pressures remained elevated or intensified. Apart from the bigger rate hikes, Minutes offered details on the Fed’s balance sheet reduction plan which will be presented and started at the May 4 policy meeting. The Fed will stop reinvesting the proceeds of maturing assets …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunset Market Commentary 06/04/2022 via Trader Talent

Sunset Wednesday, April 6, 2022 Daily Market Overview Click here to read the PDF-version of this report. Markets • Fed board member and vice-governor to-be Brainard’s speech yesterday still reverberated through financial markets today. She buried her outspoken dovish signature and now carries the hawkish banner high up in the sky. Her comments on the balance sheet (“to shrink at a rapid pace as soon as May”) in particular caught the attention since they come ahead of tonight’s Fed meeting minutes. The blueprint of QT is due in May but governors undoubtedly discussed the matter back in March. Investors will scour the …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunrise Market Commentary 06/04/2022 via Trader Talent

Wednesday, 6 April 2022 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Markets •          We’ve stressed on multiple occasions that any correction higher in the core bond sell-off remain fairly limited both in terms of magnitude and in terms of length. Yesterday’s trading session confirmed this once more and highlights the strength on the underlying market dynamic this year. Don’t get blindsided, it’s all about inflation and changing reaction functions of central banks. Core bonds returned to full sell-off mode following a brief move higher around quarter-end with new sanctions against Russia following war crimes adding some doubt. Yesterday’s decline …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunset Market Commentary 05/04/2022 via Trader Talent

Sunset Tuesday, April 5, 2022 Daily Market Overview Click here to read the PDF-version of this report. Markets • At first sight, the context for global trading today wasn’t much different from yesterday. Except for a strong US services ISM (58.3 vs 58.5 expected), there were again hardly any data with market moving potential. Geopolitics continued dominating the headlines. What additional sanctions will western countries take in the wake of atrocities being committed as Russian troops left the Kyiv area and what will be the impact of retaliatory action from Russia, especially on EMU growth and inflation? Investors’ assessment to these questions …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunrise Market Commentary 05/04/2022 via Trader Talent

Tuesday, 5 April 2022 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Markets •          The EU condemned Russian war crimes in Ukraine and looks into stepping up economic sanctions. The risk of a new escalation increases and triggered a first meaningful correction higher in European bonds in over a month. German yields dropped by 1.4 bps (2-yr) to 4.9 bps (10-yr) with the belly of the curve outperforming the wings. The US yield curve by contrast steepened with the front end correcting 3.5 bps lower and the very long end gaining 2.5 bps. The euro lost out against the dollar …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunset Market Commentary 04/04/2022 via Trader Talent

Sunset Monday, April 4, 2022 Daily Market Overview Click here to read the PDF-version of this report. Markets • (European) markets took a hesitant start to the new trading week. Today’s eco calendar was thin and data with market moving potential will also be scarce for the remainder of the week. So, the market focus again turned to the war in Ukraine. Images/reports on atrocities during the weekend committed in cities near Kyiv, reinforced calls across Europe to take more decisive economic sanctions against Russia. EMU equities opened with modest losses, but a cautious bid gradually brought European indices back to unchanged levels.US …

trader talent daily markets commentary

KBC Sunrise Market Commentary 04/04/2022 via Trader Talent

Monday, 4 April 2022 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Markets •          Record-high EMU inflation (7.5% Y/Y in March) and stellar US payrolls (431k; 3.6% unemployment rate) hijacked headlines last Friday. They kept the US bear flattening trend in place even if oil prices remained near recent lows after the US SPR release announcement. A lower, but still elevated, US manufacturing ISM (57.1 from 58.6) had no impact either. It was exemplary for the situation we’re in: a red-hot labour market, inflation spiraling out of control and a grimmer eco outlook. Daily changes on the US yield curve …