Recent Trading Articles

Sunset Monday, July 24, 2023 Daily Market Overview Click here to read the PDF-version of this report. Markets • The July European PMIs painted a bleak picture of the economy. They also all missed expectations. The composite indicator ventured deeper into contraction territory (48.9 from 49.9). Manufacturing is still leading the decline (42.7 from 43.4) with net job losses for a second month straight, a steepening loss of new orders (one of the steepest since 2009) and output at its lowest in 38 months. But cracks start to show in services as well as activity printed at a six-month low of 51.1 (from …

Monday, 24 July 2023 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Markets •          Markets on Friday mostly showed no big swings with investors mainly looking forward to this week’s eco data and central bank decisions. There were no data with market moving potential in the US or EMU. In Japan, CPI (ex fresh food 3.3% Y/Y, ex fresh food and energy 4.2%) was close to expectations. A few hours after the release, headlines from sources reported to have knowledge of the matter appeared on financial news wires indicating that the BOJ was likely to keep its policy of YCC …

Sunset Thursday, July 20, 2023 Daily Market Overview Dear reader,  There will be no KBC Economics-Markets reports on Friday July 21st. We resume our publications on Monday July 24th. ​*********​*********​*********​*********​*********​*********​*********​*********​*********​****************​********** Click here to read the PDF-version of this report. Markets • Disappointing earnings from tech giants Netflix and Tesla in US after-market hours yesterday to some extent dampened the equity mood in Europe too. The EuroStoxx50 slid 0.5% at the open but soon recovered to trade 0.1% in green currently. Its information technology subindex still eases 2.8% though with semiconductor company ASML slumping after cutting the outlook. The Nasdaq on Wall Street …

Thursday, 20 July 2023 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Dear reader,  There will be no KBC Economics-Markets reports on Friday July 21st.  We resume our publications on Monday July 24th Markets •          UK markets scaled back Bank of England tightening bets after June CPI numbers. After four consecutive months of substantial upward surprises, they declined more than forecast. At 7.9% Y/Y for the headline reading and 6.9% Y/Y for the core gauge, the UK central bank’s jobs remains far from done though. We stick to our August 50 bps rate hike call even as UK money markets …

Sunset Wednesday, July 19, 2023 Daily Market Overview Click here to read the PDF-version of this report. Markets • In the absence of any EMU data with market moving potential, the UK enjoyed the prerogative to set the tone at the start of trading this morning. After four consecutive (mostly substantial) upward surprises, UK June CPI inflation finally came out slightly softer than expected. Headline inflation slowed from 0.7% M/M and 8.7% Y/Y in May to 0.1% M/M and 7.9% Y/Y (8.2% expected). Core CPI also decelerated from a three-decade top of 7.1% Y/Y to 6.9%. Goods prices declined 0.2% M/M causing …

Wednesday, 19 July 2023 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Markets •          Dutch ECB member Knot either delivered the most targeted or the most unlucky comments of the month. The ECB hawk took stage just as the blackout curtain was about to drop. Targeted if his aim was to trigger a last-minute repricing on ECB policy rate expectations. Using his hawkish fame to put a more neutral message out. Low volume trading helped amplify moves. Unlucky is he believed that following the party line “data dependent for September” would go unnoticed on a day where the main countdown …

Sunset Tuesday, July 18, 2023 Daily Market Overview Click here to read the PDF-version of this report. Markets • German Bunds vastly outperform US Treasuries today. Yields in the country drop 6.5-14.8 bps with the front end of the curve particularly in market’s focus. Comments from ECB’s Knot were responsible. The Dutch central bank governor is known as an outspoken hawk but in an interview with news agency Bloomberg today he struck an unusual neutral-to-dovish tone. Knot said that core inflation looks like it has plateaued. While labeling a July 27 rate hike as a given, he called any increases after that …

Tuesday, 18 July 2023 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Markets •          Yesterday had little to offer from an economic point of view and that showed in daily trading. Main FI and FX markets traded sideways from the start. US stock markets (up to +0.93% for Nasdaq) parted ways with key European indices (up to -1% lower). Technical elements played in Europe after failure last week to pierce key resistance (4400) in the EuroStoxx 50. ECB members are about to join their US colleagues in the pre-meeting blackout period, but that didn’t hold some back for some last-minute …

Monday, 17 July 2023 Please  click here  to read the PDF version Markets •          Strong Q1 earnings by several Wall Street giants seemed to run away with all the attention on Friday, but eventually it was the University of Michigan’s July consumer survey which dictated the market pulse. The headline number rose unexpectedly from 64.4 to 72.6 – strongest since September 2021 and vs 65.5 consensus – with details suggesting that the Fed’s job is far from done. 1yr forward inflation expectations increased from 3.3% to 3.4% (vs 3.1% expected) with long term expectations up from 3% to 3.1%. Consumers …

Sunset Friday, July 14, 2023 Daily Market Overview Click here to read the PDF-version of this report. Markets •  Market activity shifted into a lower gear today after an impressive bond market rally since end last week fired impressive gains across multiple assets categories. Compared to the (intraday) peak levels end last week, the US 2-y and 10-y yield respectively dropped from 5.12% to 4.68% and from 4.09% to 3.78%. After a ‘hawkish tendency’ with investors selectively focusing on stronger than expected (even secondary) data, they all at once saw the glass again half empty. Mixed payrolls and slightly softer than expected …